Raphael S. Cohen

Raphael S. Cohen is the director of the Strategy and Doctrine Program at the Rand Corporation’s Project Air Force and the director of the Rand School of Public Policy’s National Security Program.

Articles by Raphael S. Cohen
Gas prices are displayed at a Chevron gas station in Los Angeles on March 30.
Gas prices are displayed at a Chevron gas station in Los Angeles on March 30.

Trump’s Iran War Is a Dilemma, Not a Debacle

Argument
Raphael S. Cohen
An Emirates commercial jet flies through a plume of black smoke that covers up much of the sky, with just a few windows of light peeking through.
An Emirates commercial jet flies through a plume of black smoke that covers up much of the sky, with just a few windows of light peeking through.

Iran’s Escalation Strategy Won’t Work

Analysis
Raphael S. Cohen
Iranian missiles and drones
Iranian missiles and drones

The Israel-Iran Detente Won’t Last This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Raphael S. Cohen
A man rides a horse next to the remains of an Iranian missile near the Israeli settlement of Tekoa in the occupied West Bank, on June 29.
A man rides a horse next to the remains of an Iranian missile near the Israeli settlement of Tekoa in the occupied West Bank, on June 29.

Iran and the Logic of Limited Wars

Argument
Raphael S. Cohen
U.S. President Donald Trump reviews the troops in the U.S. Capitol during his inauguration ceremony in Washington on Jan. 20.
U.S. President Donald Trump reviews the troops in the U.S. Capitol during his inauguration ceremony in Washington on Jan. 20.

America Under Trump Is the Realists’ Grand Experiment

Argument
Raphael S. Cohen
People sit amid the ruins of a sports stadium in the Bureij refugee camp in central Gaza during a funeral ceremony for Hamas commander Marwan Issa on Feb. 7 2025.
People sit amid the ruins of a sports stadium in the Bureij refugee camp in central Gaza during a funeral ceremony for Hamas commander Marwan Issa on Feb. 7 2025.

Gaza Is the Land of No Good Options

Analysis
Raphael S. Cohen
Houthi troops holding weapons stand in front of buildings during an anti-Israel, anti-U.S. rally in Sanaa, Yemen, on Jan. 19.
Houthi troops holding weapons stand in front of buildings during an anti-Israel, anti-U.S. rally in Sanaa, Yemen, on Jan. 19.

The Middle East’s Next Aftershocks

Analysis
Raphael S. Cohen
Kim and Putin meet in North Korea
Kim and Putin meet in North Korea

China and North Korea Throw U.S. War Plans Out the Window

Analysis
Raphael S. Cohen
Hamas leader Sinwar
Hamas leader Sinwar

Why Sinwar’s Death Matters

Analysis
Raphael S. Cohen
A participant holds an anti-Israel sign during a rally celebrating an Iranian missile attack on Israel in Palestine Square in Tehran on Oct. 1.
A participant holds an anti-Israel sign during a rally celebrating an Iranian missile attack on Israel in Palestine Square in Tehran on Oct. 1.

Iran’s Terrible, Horrible, Very Bad Year

Analysis
Raphael S. Cohen
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sits in the Oval Office during a meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden at the White House in Washington, on Sept. 21, 2023.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sits in the Oval Office during a meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden at the White House in Washington, on Sept. 21, 2023.

Ukraine Needs a New Storyline

Analysis
Raphael S. Cohen
U.S. Marine Corps recruits from Lima Company complete a 10-mile hike at Camp Pendleton, near San Diego, California, on April 22, 2021.
U.S. Marine Corps recruits from Lima Company complete a 10-mile hike at Camp Pendleton, near San Diego, California, on April 22, 2021.

The Return of the Military Draft

Analysis
Raphael S. Cohen
Ukrainian servicemen fire artillery during an anti-drone drill in Chernigiv oblast, Ukraine, on Nov. 11, 2023.
Ukrainian servicemen fire artillery during an anti-drone drill in Chernigiv oblast, Ukraine, on Nov. 11, 2023.

Biden’s Catch-22 in Ukraine

Analysis
Raphael S. Cohen, Gian Gentile
A man walks past a banner depicting Iranian missiles along a street in Tehran on April 19.
A man walks past a banner depicting Iranian missiles along a street in Tehran on April 19.

The Iran-Israel War Is Just Getting Started

Analysis
Raphael S. Cohen
A cluster of parachutes dropping supplies is seen from above over the coast of the Gaza Strip.
A cluster of parachutes dropping supplies is seen from above over the coast of the Gaza Strip.

Trucks, Piers, and Parachutes Will Not Solve Gaza’s Crisis

Analysis
Raphael S. Cohen
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