{"id":1229013,"date":"2026-05-12T13:10:33","date_gmt":"2026-05-12T17:10:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/?p=1229013"},"modified":"2026-05-12T13:10:33","modified_gmt":"2026-05-12T17:10:33","slug":"mohsen-rezaei-iran-war-hard-liners-trump-nuclear-negotiations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2026\/05\/12\/mohsen-rezaei-iran-war-hard-liners-trump-nuclear-negotiations\/","title":{"rendered":"Why the U.S. Is Headed for a Long War With Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"
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His features seemingly frozen in a perpetual frown, Mohsen Rezaei is one of the new hard-line faces of the Iranian regime. A former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and a military advisor to slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei<\/a>, he now serves Khamenei\u2019s son and successor, Mojtaba Khamenei<\/a>, in the same post. Rezaei has been quoted<\/a> in recent days as indicating that Iran\u2019s policy of \u201cstrategic patience\u201d is over and that Tehran will never bend to U.S. President Donald Trump.<\/p>\n

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But Rezaei, like other senior Iranian officials, once entertained the possibility of compromise with Washington. Indeed, he openly promoted it. Nearly two decades ago, during a 2007 reporting trip to Iran, I received a surprise invitation<\/a> from Rezaei to meet him at his summer villa on the Caspian Sea, about 150 miles north of Tehran.<\/p>\n

He didn\u2019t smile much then, either. But it was clear that Rezaei and the regime were looking for a face-saving way out of the nuclear standoff with Washington<\/a>, which was almost as tense then, under President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, as it is now. After offering me tea and fruit in his garden, Rezaei indicated that the Islamic Republic was eager for some kind of deal and told me: \u201cIf America pursues a different approach than confronting Iran, our dealings will change fundamentally.\u201d<\/p>\n

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Five political posters are mounted in a row on a light-colored, textured wall. The posters feature portraits of a man and various graphic designs in blue, orange, and purple. In the foreground, the blurry silhouette of a person in a dark headscarf walks past, creating a sense of motion.<\/figcaption>\n

A woman walks past electoral campaign posters of Iranian presidential candidate Mohsen Rezai in Tehran on May 28, 2009. Atta Kenare\/AFP via Getty Images<\/span><\/p><\/div>\n

Those days are, of course, gone, probably never to return. Now, Rezaei and his colleagues appear to be indicating that Iran is prepared<\/a> for sustained open conflict with the United States. The Trump administration, meanwhile, has been inconsistent<\/a> in saying what kind of agreement it might accept, and on May 11, the president said<\/a> the month-old cease-fire that he announced in early April is now on \u201cmassive life support.\u201d<\/p>\n

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This state of play became ever clearer over the weekend when, after days of touting a forthcoming deal with Iran, Trump found himself humiliated as Tehran slow-walked its response. The regime then delivered an offer that the president called<\/a> \u201cTOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE.\u201d According to the state-run Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Tehran is insisting that the United States lift its blockade of Iranian shipping, immediately lift sanctions, pay reparations, unfreeze assets, and accept Iranian sovereignty over the critical Strait of Hormuz<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

The Iranian position, which appears to offer only limited concessions on the all-important issue of Tehran\u2019s nuclear weapons program, reflects the uncompromising stance that Rezaei and other senior officials have staked out in recent days.<\/p>\n

Many Iranian experts believe<\/a> that after more than two months of devastating U.S.-Israeli attacks, the regime is more entrenched and harder-line than ever. And it\u2019s almost certain to stay that way, especially after having discovered a never-before-deployed but powerful tool of leverage\u2014Tehran\u2019s shutdown of the strait\u2014that is spiking world energy prices<\/a>, causing a political backlash for Trump<\/a> at home, and chilling the global economy<\/a>. While the Iranian economy is suffering something close to hyperinflation and sinking faster than ever under a U.S. blockade, there\u2019s a general sense that the Islamic Republic can outlast Trump\u2019s patience<\/a>, even if he resumes hostilities.<\/p>\n

\u201cIran seems to hold most of the cards at the moment,\u201d said John Ghazvinian, the author of the magisterial 2021 book<\/a> America and Iran: A History, 1720 to the Present<\/em>. \u201cAfter several years of setbacks, both militarily and domestically, Trump has in many ways thrown the regime a lifeline.\u201d<\/p>\n

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A small, dark motorboat carrying several people in military gear speeds across calm water toward a massive container ship. The container ship is loaded with colorful cargo crates and occupies a large portion of the right side of the frame. The sky is pale during dusk or dawn, reflecting on the water\u2019s surface.<\/figcaption>\n

A photo from the Iranian news agency Tasnim shows an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps boat allegedly taking part in an operation to seize ships attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz on April 21. Meysam Mirzadeh\/Tasnim News\/AFP via Getty Images<\/span><\/p><\/div>\n

Indeed, it may be that the war started by Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has actually strengthened<\/em> the regime\u2019s position both internationally and domestically, at least for the moment. At home, the IRGC has bloodily crushed any opposition. What\u2019s more, even many Iranian dissidents are believed to be angered<\/a> by the U.S.-Israeli attacks on a school in Minab as well as Iranian infrastructure and population centers<\/a>. And by seizing the Strait of Hormuz, the Islamic Republic has suddenly put itself at the center of global geopolitics.<\/p>\n

\u201cIran was worse off before, domestically and internationally, under the terms of the stalemate it pursued from [U.S. Presidents Ronald] Reagan to [Barack] Obama. Trump has tipped the balance of advantage toward Iran in the current stalemate,\u201d said Hussein Banai of Indiana University, the co-author of a 2022 report<\/a> on relations between Iran and the West, Republics of Myth: National Narratives and the US-Iran Conflict<\/em>.<\/p>\n

\u201cSince nearly everyone around the world sees this war as a bad choice based on little preparation, the regime in Tehran is betting the economic costs won\u2019t hurt them any more than what they\u2019re already enduring,\u201d Banai said.<\/p>\n

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