Iran War

Analysis, updates, and background.

A Greek-flagged crude oil tanker seen off the coast of the Syrian Baniyas port refinery, along the Mediterranean Sea.
A Greek-flagged crude oil tanker seen off the coast of the Syrian Baniyas port refinery, along the Mediterranean Sea.

Why Iran Isn’t Blinking Yet

Trump’s blockade aims to force damaging shutdowns at Iranian oil fields. But Tehran has been through this before. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Keith Johnson
Conservative Iranian parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, a candidate for the June 28 presidential election, addresses a rally June 26, 2024 in Tehran.
Conservative Iranian parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, a candidate for the June 28 presidential election, addresses a rally June 26, 2024 in Tehran.

Iran’s Survival Is Not Victory

Tehran’s latest rhetoric is reframing its abdication as a self-respecting state. This article has an audio recording

Argument
Menahem Merhavy
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman attends a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on Sept. 18, 2019.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman attends a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on Sept. 18, 2019.

Why Are the Saudis Sitting Out the War With Iran?

A more active approach would help cement Riyadh’s regional clout. This article has an audio recording

Argument
Steven A. Cook
A digital billboard reading "End the Iran war now" in Times Square in New York City on April 30.
A digital billboard reading "End the Iran war now" in Times Square in New York City on April 30.

Iran Has All the Hallmarks of a Forever War

There is a way out of this mess—but not right away. This article has an audio recording

Argument
Will Walldorf
Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr attends a ceremony in Tehran
Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr attends a ceremony in Tehran

The Man Who Represents Post-Clerical Iran

The rise of Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr signals the consolidation of a new type of state.

Analysis
Menahem Merhavy
A worker turns a valve on the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline at the Shirawa oilfield in Kirkuk, Iraq, in 2004.
A worker turns a valve on the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline at the Shirawa oilfield in Kirkuk, Iraq, in 2004.

Escaping the Hormuz Trap

The 70-year history of oil transit crises suggests engineering will prove more effective than diplomacy. This article has an audio recording

Argument
John V. Bowlus

Trump’s Plans

Protesters stand on an image depicting U.S. President Donald Trump during a gathering to protest the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran, seen in Ankara, Turkey, on March 1.
Protesters stand on an image depicting U.S. President Donald Trump during a gathering to protest the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran, seen in Ankara, Turkey, on March 1.

The Strategic Aftershocks of Trump’s Iran War

The consequences will be felt long after the fighting ends. This article has an audio recording

Shadow Government
Philip H. Gordon, Rebecca Lissner
A police man in a hi-vis vest stands in front of a sign advertising peace talks in Islamabad.
A police man in a hi-vis vest stands in front of a sign advertising peace talks in Islamabad.

What Really Happened in Islamabad—and What Trump Is Trying Now

The president is betting economic pressure can do what bombs couldn’t.

Argument
David Ignatius
As Steve Witkoff looks on, President Donald Trump speaks during the Republican Members Issues Conference in Miami, Florida, on March 9.
As Steve Witkoff looks on, President Donald Trump speaks during the Republican Members Issues Conference in Miami, Florida, on March 9.

America’s Problem With Diplomacy Predates Trump

Witkoff and Kushner are merely the tip of the iceberg. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Emma Ashford
Former U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton speaks in Austin, Texas.
Former U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton speaks in Austin, Texas.

How Iran Hawks Are Viewing the Cease-Fire

John Bolton explains why he wishes Trump finished the job. This article has an audio recording

Insider
Ravi Agrawal

Energy Shock

A woman cycles past tractors and trucks blocking O’Connell Street in the center of the city, as protests continue for a third day against the rising cost of fuel due to the Middle East crisis, in Dublin, Ireland.
A woman cycles past tractors and trucks blocking O’Connell Street in the center of the city, as protests continue for a third day against the rising cost of fuel due to the Middle East crisis, in Dublin, Ireland.

The Iran War’s Agriculture Shock Isn’t Over Yet

Even with a cease-fire deal in place, vital energy and fertilizer flows remain trapped. This article has an audio recording

Report
Christina Lu
A man stands between two tractors, one green and one red, with tires as tall as his shoulders. A spray painted sign at the front of the red tractor says "No fuel, no food." The sky overhead is gray, and midrise buildings are visible across the street.
A man stands between two tractors, one green and one red, with tires as tall as his shoulders. A spray painted sign at the front of the red tractor says "No fuel, no food." The sky overhead is gray, and midrise buildings are visible across the street.

The Energy Crisis Won’t End Right Away (Even if the Iran War Does)

Even if the cease-fire holds, it will take months to undo the damage. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Keith Johnson
A worker loads sulfur at a storage yard on a wharf in Nanjing, China.
A worker loads sulfur at a storage yard on a wharf in Nanjing, China.

The Iran War Comes for the ‘King of Chemicals’

The conflict is wreaking havoc on an obscure sector that is more important than you’d think. This article has an audio recording

Report
Christina Lu
Two gas pumps, with "No Gas" written on them, are seen at a gas station in 1974.
Two gas pumps, with "No Gas" written on them, are seen at a gas station in 1974.

This Isn’t a 1970s Oil Shock

The Iran war has disrupted a different, more fragile global energy system. This article has an audio recording

Argument
Rabah Arezki

Iran’s Intentions

A motorist rides past models of Iranian missiles installed along the roadside at the Valiasr Square, in Tehran on March 22.
A motorist rides past models of Iranian missiles installed along the roadside at the Valiasr Square, in Tehran on March 22.

What Iran Wants From the War

Coercive bargaining returns to the Persian Gulf.

Argument
Zakiyeh Yazdanshenas
A navy vessel is seen sailing in the Strait of Hormuz.
A navy vessel is seen sailing in the Strait of Hormuz.

Tehran Can’t Count on Hormuz

The regime survived, but this doesn’t make it as strong as it thinks. This article has an audio recording

Argument
Bobby Ghosh
An Emirates commercial jet flies through a plume of black smoke that covers up much of the sky, with just a few windows of light peeking through.
An Emirates commercial jet flies through a plume of black smoke that covers up much of the sky, with just a few windows of light peeking through.

Iran’s Escalation Strategy Won’t Work

Tehran’s compulsive gambling has paid off in the past, but this time looks different.

Analysis
Raphael S. Cohen
A man in a black jacket and beanie walks underneath a banner with an illustration displaying a transfer of the Iranian flag between the three supreme Leaders.
A man in a black jacket and beanie walks underneath a banner with an illustration displaying a transfer of the Iranian flag between the three supreme Leaders.

Iran’s Islamic Republic 2.0 is Coming—and It Won’t Be Pretty

How Trump’s tactical victory could turn into a forever war.

Argument
David Ignatius

Military Strategy

Missiles produced by Iran's armed forces are displayed near a row of Iranian flags during commemorations to mark the anniversary of the 1979 Iranian Revolution on Feb. 11 in Tehran.
Missiles produced by Iran's armed forces are displayed near a row of Iranian flags during commemorations to mark the anniversary of the 1979 Iranian Revolution on Feb. 11 in Tehran.

Iran’s Strait of Hormuz Toolkit: Drones, Missiles, and Mines

A breakdown of the tools Iran has to maintain pressure on Trump.

Situation Report
Rishi Iyengar, John Haltiwanger
Officers in uniform with formal hats stand under a banner with words in Farsi and the image of an unmanned drone.
Officers in uniform with formal hats stand under a banner with words in Farsi and the image of an unmanned drone.

The Drone Attrition Trap

The Middle East conflict shows Washington hasn’t yet learned enough about cheap drones from Kyiv.

Argument
David Petraeus, Clara Kaluderovic
About half a dozen U.S. Navy sailors are seen from overhead as they work on what appear to be torpedos or missiles of some sort. The sailors wear bright red uniforms and helmets.
About half a dozen U.S. Navy sailors are seen from overhead as they work on what appear to be torpedos or missiles of some sort. The sailors wear bright red uniforms and helmets.

America’s War Machine Runs on Tungsten—and It Could Run Out

U.S. operations in Iran risk draining limited U.S. stocks. This article has an audio recording

Report
Christina Lu
A fireball rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike on Beirut's southern suburbs on March 11.
A fireball rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike on Beirut's southern suburbs on March 11.

Iran and the New Arithmetic of War

Cheap autonomous weapons are overturning the economics of combat—and teaching the United States important lessons.

Argument
Fareed Zakaria

Israel’s Approach

Trump holds stands near a lectern next to Netanyahu, who has his hand on his podium. Both men are wearing business suits and red ties. The lecterns show the U.S. presidential seal, and behind them are U.S. and Israeli flags.
Trump holds stands near a lectern next to Netanyahu, who has his hand on his podium. Both men are wearing business suits and red ties. The lecterns show the U.S. presidential seal, and behind them are U.S. and Israeli flags.

The U.S. and Israel Aren’t Fighting the Same War

It would be a mistake for Trump to defer to Netanyahu’s regime change fantasies. This article has an audio recording

Argument
Omar Shakir
Two men sit on a mattress on the floor in a corner of a bunker. The older man cradles a young woman who rests her head on his shoulder, whereas a younger man at his side simply stares.
Two men sit on a mattress on the floor in a corner of a bunker. The older man cradles a young woman who rests her head on his shoulder, whereas a younger man at his side simply stares.

Even From Their Bomb Shelters, Most Israelis Support the War on Iran

But a long campaign would be hard to sustain. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
David E. Rosenberg
Trump and Netanyahu face each other and shake hands while standing near lecterns at the front of a press briefing room. Trump is pointing at Netanyahu's face, while Netanyahu smiles at him.
Trump and Netanyahu face each other and shake hands while standing near lecterns at the front of a press briefing room. Trump is pointing at Netanyahu's face, while Netanyahu smiles at him.

Blaming Israel Lets Washington Off the Hook

Joe Kent’s resignation letter mixes fact and fiction to deleterious effect. This article has an audio recording

Shadow Government
Matthew Duss
A partial view of the Dimona nuclear research center in the southern Israeli Negev desert.
A partial view of the Dimona nuclear research center in the southern Israeli Negev desert.

The Iran War Is Eroding Israel’s Nuclear Ambiguity

Officially or not, Washington is now breaking the taboo and talking about its ally’s bombs.

Argument
Yonatan Touval

Latest Stories

A view of a street in Tehran, Iran, on May 12.
A view of a street in Tehran, Iran, on May 12.

The Myth of Zero Enrichment

Tehran regards Washington’s demand as tantamount to unconditional surrender, but there may yet be a way forward.

Argument
Sina Azodi
A still image from the “AI Iran” YouTube channel, captured on May 18.
A still image from the “AI Iran” YouTube channel, captured on May 18.

Iran Is Winning the Vibe War

Disinformation experts need a new framework in the era of AI slop.

Argument
Peter Benzoni
President Trump frowning slightly against a clear blue sky with an American flag out of focus behind him.
President Trump frowning slightly against a clear blue sky with an American flag out of focus behind him.

Iran Could Be Trump’s Greatest Failure

A lot of things have gone horribly wrong—and it’s not over yet.

Argument
Ravi Agrawal
Flags of Israel and Somaliland fly alongside each other at the entrance to a fruit farm between the capital city of Hargeisa and Port city of Berbera in Somaliland on February 19.
Flags of Israel and Somaliland fly alongside each other at the entrance to a fruit farm between the capital city of Hargeisa and Port city of Berbera in Somaliland on February 19.

The Gulf’s African Aftershocks

How the Iran war is deepening proxy conflicts around the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa.

Argument
Liam Karr
Three U.S. National Guard troops walk in front of a blue billboard truck that displays the message "No War With Iran" as it sits in front of the U.S. Capitol building.
Three U.S. National Guard troops walk in front of a blue billboard truck that displays the message "No War With Iran" as it sits in front of the U.S. Capitol building.

Why Congress Can’t Stop Trump’s Iran War

A half-century of messy politics has inverted the Constitution’s design—and there’s no easy fix. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Rachel Oswald
Women in Tehran are seen walking on the street past a banner that depicts U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran.
Women in Tehran are seen walking on the street past a banner that depicts U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran.

Is It Really a ‘Cease-Fire’ if Both Sides Are Still Shooting?

A mediation expert explains why the U.S.-Iran cease-fire is so vulnerable.

Q&A
John Haltiwanger
A staff member removes the Iranian flag from the stage during Iran nuclear talks in Vienna on July 14, 2015.
A staff member removes the Iranian flag from the stage during Iran nuclear talks in Vienna on July 14, 2015.

Would We Be Better Off Today With the JCPOA?

The Iran war spotlights one of Washington’s most contentious counterfactuals. This article has an audio recording

Argument
Steven A. Cook
A person wearing a black chador and a face mask stands on a small blue stage, holding a large Iranian flag that waves in the wind. Behind them is a massive billboard featuring a close-up of a person’s face and text in English and Farsi. White storefronts with gold and red lettering are visible at the bottom.
A person wearing a black chador and a face mask stands on a small blue stage, holding a large Iranian flag that waves in the wind. Behind them is a massive billboard featuring a close-up of a person’s face and text in English and Farsi. White storefronts with gold and red lettering are visible at the bottom.

Why the U.S. Is Headed for a Long War With Iran

The Tehran regime is more hard-line than ever—and has nothing left to lose.

Analysis
Michael Hirsh
Russian President Vladimir Putin waits to greet Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian prior to a Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting in Tianjin, China, on Sept. 1, 2025.
Russian President Vladimir Putin waits to greet Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian prior to a Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting in Tianjin, China, on Sept. 1, 2025.

Is Russia the Main Beneficiary of Trump’s Iran Mistake?

The Kremlin is gaining billions in additional oil revenue. This article has an audio recording

Insider
Ravi Agrawal
Members of the public make their way past trucks and tractors as fuel protesters block O’Connell Street in Dublin on April 11.
Members of the public make their way past trucks and tractors as fuel protesters block O’Connell Street in Dublin on April 11.

Iran War Chokes ‘Major Driver’ of Global Economy

The Hormuz crisis is hitting diesel even harder than crude. This article has an audio recording

Report
Christina Lu, Keith Johnson
A woman walks past model missiles and centrifuges in Tehran.
A woman walks past model missiles and centrifuges in Tehran.

Iran Does Not Have a Right to Enrich Uranium

Trump should push for zero enrichment in perpetuity as part of any deal with Tehran. This article has an audio recording

Argument
Matthew Kroenig
Commuters pass a billboard of slain Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei at Valiasr Square in Tehran on April 19.
Commuters pass a billboard of slain Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei at Valiasr Square in Tehran on April 19.

The Surprisingly Normal Streets of Tehran

U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran have led regular people to rally around the flag—for now. This article has an audio recording

Insider
Ravi Agrawal
Anti-war demonstrators protest the war in Iran as members of the U.S. National Guard look on in Washington on April 7.
Anti-war demonstrators protest the war in Iran as members of the U.S. National Guard look on in Washington on April 7.

The Iran Dilemma Washington Refuses to Resolve

Two goals have been in tension in U.S. policy for nearly half a century.

Argument
Fareed Zakaria
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a military Mother’s Day event in the East Room of the White House in Washington on May 6.
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a military Mother’s Day event in the East Room of the White House in Washington on May 6.

What’s in Trump’s New Counterterrorism Strategy?

The White House ignores the threat of far-right groups.

Situation Report
Rishi Iyengar, John Haltiwanger
A car is seen from behind as it passes by beneath Israeli and United Arab Emirates flags flying on poles. In the background are midrise buildings and palm trees and other greenery.
A car is seen from behind as it passes by beneath Israeli and United Arab Emirates flags flying on poles. In the background are midrise buildings and palm trees and other greenery.

How the Abraham Accords Fueled a New Era of Conflict

Despite promising peace, Israeli-Gulf cooperation paved the path to war with Iran.

Argument
Matthew Duss, Zuri Linetsky
Iranians drive past a billboard featuring late Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, killed during the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, on a street in Tehran on May 5.
Iranians drive past a billboard featuring late Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, killed during the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, on a street in Tehran on May 5.

War Handed Public Space Back to Iran’s Regime

After years of quiet encroachment by ordinary people, the Islamic Republic reclaims the urban landscape.

Argument
Saeid Golkar
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